November 22, 2013
COMMENTS FROM DR. LAWRENCE YUN, CHIEF ECONOMIST OF THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS AT THE NAR CONFERENCE IN SAN FRANCISCO
- Areas with lack of inventory will see the same thing this spring.
- We need 6 to 8 million more jobs to get back to normal.
- There are no threatening inflation signs for 2013, but inflation rises to 4-6% in 2015, well above the Fed’s preferred rate of 2%
- The Wall Street Journal Economists Panel predicts an average 5% increase in home prices in 2014.
- Buyers want privacy, walkability and age diversity in home location.
- Although the unemployment rate is 7.3%, the employment rate for adults is only 58%. Under normal circumstances it should be 62-64%.
- When the economy is sluggish, stimulus is used to speed it up. “Quantitative Easing” sounds better than “Printing Money”. This should create inflation and the fact that it hasn’t indicates that the recovery is sluggish.
- There is a correlation between productivity and income doubling
The U.S. today 1% 72 years
U.S. from 1970-2007 2% 36 years
U.S. post-war to 1970 3% 24 years
Asian Tigers 5% 14 years
With no gain, our children will be worse off than their parents.