January 6, 2012
- Diana Olick writes in Realty Check that the latest cancellation rate on existing home sale contracts is 20%. A more normal rate would be 4-6%. Only 9% cite inability to get a mortgage. Bigger issues are failed inspections, buyers with cold feet and adverse economic conditions.
- NAR has revised their statistics for existing home sales since 2007. In 2010, they revised the number of sales from 4,908,000 down to 4,190,000. 2007-2010 were revised downward by 14.3%
- Inman News cites a survey of 100 economists who feel that home prices are in the middle of another slide and won’t bottom until late 2012 or early 2013. Nationally, prices fell 31.3% from the 2006 peak to early 2003 prices levels. The panel predicts a price rebound of 1.75% in 2013 followed by a steady annual appreciation of 2.7 to 3.3% through 2016.
- From Jack Cotton of Sotheby’s International Realty: “The real estate market will continue to improve.
- Improve means more confidence, more activity and more sales. My definition does not include increased prices or a return to 2005 pricing.
- Still too much supply. Some markets still have 10 or more homes on the market for every one that sells.
- Many sellers will finally realize that, contrary to their fantasies, prices are not going to make a sudden return to 2005 levels. There will be more seller price capitulation in 2012.
- There will be a significant increase in REO, short and distress sales in 2012, especially the high end. The ability to “fake it” is running out for many people who have been hanging on …”