February 17, 2012

Massachusetts Home Buyer/Home Seller Survey for 2011 from the National Association of Realtors reveals the following:

• The median age for home buyers is 42.  29% fell in the 25-34 range, 23% fell in the 35-44 age range, 19% fell in the 45-54 age range and 19% fell in the 55-64 age range.
• The median age of the home seller was 51
• 94% of buyers worked with a real estate professional
• The household median income of buyers is $89,700
• 43% were first time home buyers
• 86% of home buyers were born in the United States and 14% were not.
• 67% of home buyers were married couples, 14% were single females, 6% were unmarried couples, and 5% were “other”.
• The race/ethnicity of buyers broke into the following percentages:  White-86%, Black-3%, Hispanic-2%, Asian-8%, Other-2%
• The average real estate professional is a 56 year old white female who attended college and is a homeowner.
• The average real estate professional in Massachusetts does 9 transactions/year while nationally, the average is 8 transactions/year.

February 10, 2012

• DISASTER ON THE HORIZON.  Greg Rand of WABC, New York comments on the Federal Government’s new initiative to convert foreclosures into rentals.  “Shawn Donovan, head of HUD is a lifelong promoter of affordable housing, a good thing, contingent upon how you go about it.  He favors command and control ideas and has no faith in the private sector.  The idea is to sell 250,000 single family homes to a handful of investors at a deep discount (30 or 50 cents on the dollar).  Investors are already buying these properties, so why do it?  There are strings attached.  You have to convert the property to rental, then market at below market rental rates.  So check who these few investors are – campaign contributors?  Crony capitalism?  There is a potential for destroying the rental market by oversupply and potential problems with a new form of “projects”.  If they settle on 1 or 2 cities, run away from those cities.” 

• Corelogic reports that home prices fell 5% in 2011.

• Personal bankruptcy filings fell 16% in Massachusetts in 2011.

• School Boundaries is a widget for your website that will find the exact school district assignment for any home.

• The WAV Group Report in conjunction with Nielsen Survey of Zillow and Trulia showed the following percentages of audience:

            Trulia                   Zillow

125 million ages 25-64                                                     2.8%                      7.8%

63 million w/income above $75,000                                   3.2%                      8.5%

94 million married couples                                                2.8%                      7.5%

49 million college & post college grads                             3.7%                      9.7%

45 million mobile users                                                    3.9%                      9.6%

40 million with savings above $50,000                               3.1%                      8.6%

32 million in the Northeast                                               3.2%                      6.5%

February 3, 2012

• One of five Americans speak a language other than English.  The largest group – 35 million, speak Spanish.  The second largest is Chinese.

• Freddie and Fannie generally cap seller concessions at 3%.  The VA allows an across the board 4%.  FHA still allows seller concessions up to 6% but is in the process of lowering the cap which should happen by early summer.

• There is considerable discussion about the value of syndication.  Some brokers are pulling their listings from 3^rd party syndications (Realtor.com, Trulia, Zillow).  Most recent is ARG Abbott Realty Group in San Diego.  One of the larger brokerages to stop syndication was Edina Realty in Minnesota.

• The average 30 year fixed rate for the week ending February 2^nd was 3.87% with .8 point.  This is down from 4.81% a year ago.

January 27, 2012

Sound bites from the Inman Connect Conference held in January in New York City:  State of Real Estate – The Year Ahead, a panel with  Margaret Kelly, CEO RE/MAX, Diana Olick, CNBC, Alex Perriello, CEO Realogy

• Does NAR’s numbers revision have impact?  No.  Trends are still the same, but it does show just how distressed the market was.  REO/short sale stats are a higher percentage

.

• One weather forecast for the nation doesn’t work.  The same is true for real estate.

• We are flooded with data, but starved for wisdom.  Consumers are looking at D.C, stock market, etc. and have no confidence.  They’re going to wait.  When there is doubt in the market, people press the pause button.

• We need a clear, concise housing policy from Washington, D.C.  The election will force the administration to do something, but there will be no clear housing policy from them.

• Dodd/Frank – if regulators have their way, it will damage housing further.

• Anticipate 2 to 3 years of elevated foreclosures.  There has been a giant clogging of the system.  The moratoriums created a log jam.  In NY state, it takes over 1000 days from notice of default to bank take-back.  12 million people are now underwater.  A lot of homeowners are gaming the system.  Free rent for 2.5 years – what’s my advantage to do a price reduction! There’s a  big problem of entitlement mentality.  Foreclosure was once a shameful thing and the homeowner would leave the property spotless.  Now, it’s “screw you bank” and they rip everything out.

• .  Recovery used to mean getting better – now, it means not getting worse.

January 27, 2012

Sound bites from the Inman Connect Conference held in January in New York City:  State of Real Estate – The Year Ahead, a panel with  Margaret Kelly, CEO RE/MAX, Diana Olick, CNBC, Alex Perriello, CEO Realogy

• Does NAR’s numbers revision have impact?  No.  Trends are still the same, but it does show just how distressed the market was.  REO/short sale stats are a higher percentage

.

• One weather forecast for the nation doesn’t work.  The same is true for real estate.

• We are flooded with data, but starved for wisdom.  Consumers are looking at D.C, stock market, etc. and have no confidence.  They’re going to wait.  When there is doubt in the market, people press the pause button.

• We need a clear, concise housing policy from Washington, D.C.  The election will force the administration to do something, but there will be no clear housing policy from them.

• Dodd/Frank – if regulators have their way, it will damage housing further.

• Anticipate 2 to 3 years of elevated foreclosures.  There has been a giant clogging of the system.  The moratoriums created a log jam.  In NY state, it takes over 1000 days from notice of default to bank take-back.  12 million people are now underwater.  A lot of homeowners are gaming the system.  Free rent for 2.5 years – what’s my advantage to do a price reduction! There’s a  big problem of entitlement mentality.  Foreclosure was once a shameful thing and the homeowner would leave the property spotless.  Now, it’s “screw you bank” and they rip everything out.

• .  Recovery used to mean getting better – now, it means not getting worse.

January 6, 2012

• Diana Olick writes in Realty Check that the latest cancellation rate on existing home sale contracts is 20%.  A more normal rate would be 4-6%.  Only 9% cite inability to get a mortgage.  Bigger issues are failed inspections, buyers with cold feet and adverse economic conditions.

• NAR has revised their statistics for existing home sales since 2007.  In 2010, they revised the number of sales from 4,908,000 down to 4,190,000.  2007-2010 were revised downward by 14.3%

• Inman News cites a survey of 100 economists who feel that home prices are in the middle of another slide and won’t bottom until late 2012 or early 2013.  Nationally, prices fell 31.3% from the 2006 peak to early 2003 prices levels.  The panel predicts a price rebound of 1.75% in 2013 followed by a steady annual appreciation of 2.7 to 3.3% through 2016.

• From Jack Cotton of Sotheby’s International Realty:  “The real estate market will continue to improve.
  • Improve means more confidence, more activity and more sales.  My definition does not include increased prices or a return to 2005 pricing.
  • Still too much supply.  Some markets still have 10 or more homes on the market for every one that sells.
  • Many sellers will finally realize that, contrary to their fantasies, prices are not going to make a sudden return to 2005 levels.  There will be more seller price capitulation in 2012.
  • There will be a significant increase in REO, short and distress sales in 2012, especially the high end.  The ability to “fake it” is running out for many people who have been hanging on …”

FACTS FROM THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS  (NAR): 

• Moody’s July 2011 forecast predicts a return to positive home price growth of 1.21% in FY 2012 and peaking at 6.08% in FY 2014 and between 3-4% in FY 2018 and beyond.
• FHA insured 60% of all African-American and Hispanic homeowners in 2010.
• FHA insured 56% of all first-time homebuyers in 2010, according to NAR.
• FHA borrowers in FY 2011 have an average credit score above 700.  This is the first time the average credit score for FHA borrowers broke the 700 mark.

FROM NAR’S 2011 PROFILE OF HOME BUYERS AND SELLERS:

• The first step in looking for a home was online for 35% of buyers.  Use of the Internet dropped for 89% last year to 88% this year.
• 87% of buyers used real estate agents, 55% used yard signs, 45% used open houses, 30% used print newspapers
• 40% of buyers found their home on the Internet, 35% through a real estate agent, 11% through a yard or open house sign.
• 41% found their agent through a referral from friend or family.  9% found their agent online.  Only 9% used the same agent they had used before.
• The time period buyers estimated that they would live in their homes increased to 15 years from 10 years in 2010.
• Married couples were 64% of all buyers.  First time buyers dropped to 37%

December 16, 2011

TIDBITS FROM INMAN NEWS:

• A record number of homes are in the foreclosure pipeline.  Lenders are attempting to push 2.2 million homes through the process as of the end of October.  But, the long-term outlook shows significant improvement.  One reason the foreclosure pipeline is so full is that it’s taking so long for the lenders to begin proceedings in seriously delinquent loans.

• Android and iPhone have 75% of smartphone market share.

• Here’s some staging advice to sellers during the holidays:  use winter scented home fragrances before an open house, make the home feel more cozy through reading nooks and blankets on couches and beds, set the table to showcase holiday entertaining, play seasonal music that is not specific to a particular holiday.

• Zillow reports that home values are down 23.7% from the May 2007 peak.  They project an additional 2-4% decline before bottoming in 2012.  In 156 metropolitan areas, 61% saw value decline, 14% remained flat, and 6% saw an increase on an annual basis.  Of the 25 largest metro areas, all but one (Pittsburgh) saw a year over year decrease.  Home values in Boston declined 2.7%.

December 2, 2011

Here are some bits and pieces from the National Association of Realtors Conference held in Anaheim, California from November 10-14^th:

• The Realtor Relief Fund was established on September 12, 2001 to help survivors of 9/11 stay in their homes.  $8.5 million was distributed in three months.  100% of donations go to survivors of disaster, and since inception, $22 million has been distributed for 30 disasters.

• NAR is calling on Congress to not risk weakening the housing market any further and to DO NO HARM.  They’re asking for a re-write of Dodd-Frank, a restoration of higher loan limits, and to resist proposals to change housing tax incentives now or in the future.  They are calling on the White house to hold a housing summit to articulate a new housing policy.

• Right now, we are seeing the greatest transfer of wealth from generation to generation around the world.

• In China, per person income is 10% of that in the United States.  The economies of China, Japan and Germany equal the U.S. economy.

• Housing accounts for 15% of GDP.  Home sales generate more than 2.5 million private sector jobs in an average year.  For every two homes sold, a job is created.

November 25, 2011

Here are some sound-bites from Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of the National Association of Realtors, speaking at the Economic Issues & Residential Real Estate Business Trends Forum at the NAR Conference in Anaheim, California on November 11, 2011

• The world feels upside down.  Too much strangeness going on.  It’s difficult to get the recovery we need.  Best affordability ever but no pick up in house sales.
• According to Case-Schiller, prices have stabilized over the past two years
• 40 year low in inventory of newly constructed homes
• Huge cash reserves at banks.  Record high financial industry profits last year and very good profits this year, yet BOA stock in the tank.
• Federal Reserve is trying to stimulate yet regulations discourage lending
• Never before a better time to buy, yet home sales running flat
• Prices are up in Boston, San Francisco, D.C., San Diego and Buffalo.  Prices are down in Atlanta, Chicago, Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix and Portland, Oregon.
• New home construction at a 46 year low.  Lowest rate since WWII for the past 3 years.  Builders can’t get construction loans.
• Existing inventory elevated, but trending down. 
• Only a third of Dodd-Frank bill has been implemented.  Great uncertainty over remaining two thirds and what the regulations will be.
• Latest Home Buyer/Seller Survey for 2011 released.  Last year’s home buyers had increasingly higher income.  Creating a divided society.  Home ownership possible to less and less of the middle class
• Work hard in America, you will be punished is the message coming from D.C.
• Traditionally, home price versus rent was 1 to 1.  CPI rent is rising.  Next year rent growth could be 3 to 4%.  Home prices should rise concurrently.
• Cost comparison over the past 20 years – rent up 200%, food up 150%, gas up 197% yet mortgage payment rates have risen minimally
• Gold now rising.  5 years ago was okay as an inflation hedge.  Now, real estate could be that hedge.
• Consumer confidence remains in the tank.  Country leaders can change attitude:  FDR, Truman, Ike, Regan all did.  Inspiration doesn’t cost money.  Dividing the country makes it worse.
• When will we see an end to the strangeness?  Let prices recover without obstacles.  If prices go up 5%, 2 million fewer will be underwater.  Obstacles:  Rising mortgage rates, QRM-20%.  Attack on home ownership by academics and the media
• Tea party – leave us alone – against big government
• Occupy – someone screwed us – against corporations
• VA loans – 4 million no down-payment mortgages for WWII vets.  Fueled unprecedented growth of the middle class. 
• Simple fact:  stay within your budget and you’ll be fine